1. The Obama Clegg Effect:
I am genuinely excited that they could win this election outright! After the 6 pack of whoop-ass Clegg doled out on Cameron and Brown in the first debate, the press is talking about it as a possibility. A new, enigmatic leader, a plausible protest vote against the expenses lunacy, Iraq and slapstick politics. Dissatisfaction with Labour hasn't transferred to great enthusiasm for the Tories, leaving an apathetic balance where neither has much chance of an overall majority.
Last week, 'swingometers' were recalibrated for a third direction and colour, with news presenters talking of a 16% swing necessary for an overall Lib Dem majority. But that's nonsense talk!: With only 60% of the electorate voting in the last two elections, a couple million *extra* votes would make up the necessary difference. The extra 10% turnout that voted in New Labour, in 1997, would be sufficient. However, the BBC are now showing Lib Dems in second position, 3% behind the Tories, and the recent Yougov/Sun poll states that if people believe a Lib Dem government is possible, not only do we get a Lib Dem Prime Minister, the 49% popular vote would yield the biggest majority seen for decades.
2. Victory next time through electoral reform in a hung parliament:
If the popular vote goes the way the opinion poles currently show (split fairly equally 3 ways) the Lib Dems will still trail far behind on seats, due to the 'First Past the Post' voting system for Mps. (Their support is about the same right across the country, where as Lab/Con policies produce a strong bipolar City/Country split; a Tweedle Dumb vs Tweedle Disingenuous act that has kept sensible parties out of 65 years.) This guardian article thinks a 3 way tie would spell the end for 'FPTP'.